School closures that swept several US states from March to May might have led to a million fewer Covid-19 cases and saved more than 40,000 lives, a new study suggests.
The states that closed schools earlier, when the cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases was lowest, saw the greatest declines per week at the time, compared with states that were slowest to close schools and had the highest cumulative incidence of Covid-19, according to the study, published in the medical journal JAMA on Wednesday.
The researchers -- from Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, the University of Cincinnati and the Pediatric Research in Inpatient Settings Network in Ohio -- wrote in the study that "the analyses presented here suggest that the timing of school closure plays a role in the magnitude of changes associated with school closure."
Extrapolating their findings to the US population, the researchers wrote in the study that "school closure may have been associated with approximately 1.37 million fewer cases of COVID-19 over a 26-day period and 40,600 fewer deaths over a 16-day period."
However, the researchers note their findings can not necessarily apply to current debates around reopening schools since the conditions in the spring -- when fewer people may have been wearing masks and social distancing -- differ from now.
For instance, "it is unclear how COVID-19 spread would be affected if schools remained open while states enacted other policies to restrict movement," the researchers wrote in the study. "It is possible school-related spread may be mitigated with infection-control interventions recommended by the CDC and the American Academy of Pediatrics, including frequent handwashing, universal mask policies, physical distancing measures, and increased sanitation procedures."
